SENSEX 17150.95 +56.44
NIFTY 5226.20 +18.75
USD/INR 0051.59 +00.06
NASDAQ 2984.18 -27.15
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UPDATEDTIME 09.28 PM 16 APRIL 2012
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The National
Stock Exchange's Nifty ended a lackluster session on a positive note as traders
bought rate sensitive stocks ahead of Reserve Bank of India's policy review
meet.
According to analysts, the RBI is likely to cut repo rate by 25 basis points to promote faltering economic growth. However, inflation and depreciating rupee continue to remain a concern for the central bank.
India's WPI inflation in March eased to 6.89 per cent vs 6.95 per cent in February. Despite a strong base effect, the inflation was higher than forecast of 6.70 per cent.
"The macro backdrop is very tough and the RBI is in an unenviable position. Despite ~525bps of effective tightening, inflationary pressures persist. However, given that headline inflation has eased from 9%+ levels seen earlier, there is now need for policy measures to bring growth back to ~7% levels.
Given the intractable fiscal deficit, the difficult political environment, the onus unfortunately is back on monetary policy. We thus maintain our view of the RBI commencing its easing cycle by cutting rates by 25bps in its policy tomorrow.
The outlook for policy rates post easing of 50bps would be data/event dependent.
The market has already factored in a CRR cut and may remain rangebound post policy review if the RBI goes ahead with 25 bps cut. But if it chooses to maintain status quo then the benchmarks, which are hovering close of 200-DMA, may begin to face selling pressure.
It (rate cut) is already discounted by the markets and you may not see too much of an upside. But in case the cut does not happen then you are actually seeing a cut of 200 points so the risk reward ratio is not favourable.
The Nifty closed at 5226.20, up 18.75 points or 0.36 per cent. It touched a high of 5233.50 and low of 5183.50 in trade today.
The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex ended at 17150.95, up 56.44 points or 0.33 per cent. It touched intraday high of 17173.06 and low of 17010.16.
"Though the market looks weak, it is in a range between 5200 - 5300. Any decisive close below 5200 or above 5300 would lead us to think of a directional move.
Global markets are a key factor because once the policy is out than we will be pretty much dancing to global the tunes. If the global correction continues than this market will find a lot of difficulty in going up.
Overall we are still ranging and it is best to let the market tell us its next move post this consolidation.
BSE Midcap Index was up 0.80 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index moved 0.56 per cent higher.
Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Auto Index gained 1.31 per cent, BSE Bankex was up 1.22 per cent, BSE Capital Goods Index moved 1.10 per cent higher and BSE Realty Index advanced 1 per cent. BSE IT Index slipped 0.49 per cent and BSE Oil&gas Index moved 0.27 per cent lower.
Tata Motors (4.22%), Jaiprakash Associates (3.36%), Axis Bank (3.17%), State Bank of India (2.60%) andPunjab National Bank (2.30%) were the major Nifty gainers.
Shares of Tata Motors gained momentum after reports that its global sales rose to 1.39 lakh vehicles with sales of Jaguar Land Rover surging to 36471 units.
Ambuja Cement (-2.39%), ACC (-1.74%), Bharti Airtel (-1.67%), Infosys Technologies (-1.57%), Sun Pharmaceuticals (-1.55%) and Grasim (-1.53%) were amongst the index losers.
Meanwhile, the rupee hit fresh three-month low on increased demand for the dollar from banks and oil marketing companies. The partially convertible rupee was at 51.67, down 32 paise against previous close of 51.35 per dollar. It recovered some of the losses after slipping to three-month low of 51.75.
Market breadth was positive on the NSE with 843 gainers against 636 losers.
According to analysts, the RBI is likely to cut repo rate by 25 basis points to promote faltering economic growth. However, inflation and depreciating rupee continue to remain a concern for the central bank.
India's WPI inflation in March eased to 6.89 per cent vs 6.95 per cent in February. Despite a strong base effect, the inflation was higher than forecast of 6.70 per cent.
"The macro backdrop is very tough and the RBI is in an unenviable position. Despite ~525bps of effective tightening, inflationary pressures persist. However, given that headline inflation has eased from 9%+ levels seen earlier, there is now need for policy measures to bring growth back to ~7% levels.
Given the intractable fiscal deficit, the difficult political environment, the onus unfortunately is back on monetary policy. We thus maintain our view of the RBI commencing its easing cycle by cutting rates by 25bps in its policy tomorrow.
The outlook for policy rates post easing of 50bps would be data/event dependent.
The market has already factored in a CRR cut and may remain rangebound post policy review if the RBI goes ahead with 25 bps cut. But if it chooses to maintain status quo then the benchmarks, which are hovering close of 200-DMA, may begin to face selling pressure.
It (rate cut) is already discounted by the markets and you may not see too much of an upside. But in case the cut does not happen then you are actually seeing a cut of 200 points so the risk reward ratio is not favourable.
The Nifty closed at 5226.20, up 18.75 points or 0.36 per cent. It touched a high of 5233.50 and low of 5183.50 in trade today.
The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex ended at 17150.95, up 56.44 points or 0.33 per cent. It touched intraday high of 17173.06 and low of 17010.16.
"Though the market looks weak, it is in a range between 5200 - 5300. Any decisive close below 5200 or above 5300 would lead us to think of a directional move.
Global markets are a key factor because once the policy is out than we will be pretty much dancing to global the tunes. If the global correction continues than this market will find a lot of difficulty in going up.
Overall we are still ranging and it is best to let the market tell us its next move post this consolidation.
BSE Midcap Index was up 0.80 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index moved 0.56 per cent higher.
Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Auto Index gained 1.31 per cent, BSE Bankex was up 1.22 per cent, BSE Capital Goods Index moved 1.10 per cent higher and BSE Realty Index advanced 1 per cent. BSE IT Index slipped 0.49 per cent and BSE Oil&gas Index moved 0.27 per cent lower.
Tata Motors (4.22%), Jaiprakash Associates (3.36%), Axis Bank (3.17%), State Bank of India (2.60%) andPunjab National Bank (2.30%) were the major Nifty gainers.
Shares of Tata Motors gained momentum after reports that its global sales rose to 1.39 lakh vehicles with sales of Jaguar Land Rover surging to 36471 units.
Ambuja Cement (-2.39%), ACC (-1.74%), Bharti Airtel (-1.67%), Infosys Technologies (-1.57%), Sun Pharmaceuticals (-1.55%) and Grasim (-1.53%) were amongst the index losers.
Meanwhile, the rupee hit fresh three-month low on increased demand for the dollar from banks and oil marketing companies. The partially convertible rupee was at 51.67, down 32 paise against previous close of 51.35 per dollar. It recovered some of the losses after slipping to three-month low of 51.75.
Market breadth was positive on the NSE with 843 gainers against 636 losers.
Regards
RAKESH MAKIN
+91,
9041667797(DIRECT), 9915684997
OFF
0172-4657997
PANCHKULA (Haryana).
Email:makin_97@yahoo.com
Group mail id: makin97NSEtips@yahoogroups.co.in
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