SENSEX 17919.30
+105.68
NIFTY 5463.90 +34.40
USD/INR 0050.00 +00.08
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UPDATEDTIME 09.28 PM 14 MARCH 2012
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The National Stock Exchange's Nifty
extended its winning streak for fourth consecutive session on back of
supportive cues from global peers led by gains in banks, capital goods, FMCG
and power space.
The benchmark had opened with a gap-up but missed psychological resistance mark of 5500 by a whisker. According to dealers, traders with long positions booked profits near resistance levels ahead of monthly inflation figures and Railways Budget resulting in tapering of intraday gains.
The profit booking intensified after the monthly WPI inflation for the month of February grew 6.95 per cent against 6.55 per cent in January. Inflation and high oil prices may result in Reserve Bank of India maintaining status quo at its review meet Thursday.
"We expect a status quo on CRR and policy rates. We surmise this on the reasoning that: (a) CRR reduction on March 9 should be adequate to address excessively tight liquidity and hence another cut is not warranted; (b) RBI has raised concerns about surging crude prices; and (c) the central bank will be inclined to wait for the Union Budget (scheduled for March 16, post policy) to get a better sense on fiscal policy for the coming year.
Nonetheless, slackening of growth in the economy is real and it has faltered much below potential. Given this, RBI is expected to take cognizance of growth (and investment) slowdown and initiate rate cuts in its annual policy meeting in April.
Meanwhile, Railway Minister, Dinesh Trivedi, presented Railway Budget for FY12-13 in the parliament today. The Minister began speech by stressing on improving safety measures. His ministry is planning to eliminate all unmanned railway crossings in next five years.
The Indian Railways also aims to cut operating ratio to 84.9 percent in 2012-13 from 95 percent.
"Our target is to bring down the operating ratio, which is at the moment 95 per cent, to 84.9 percent in 2012-13 and to 74 per cent in terminal year of 12th five year plan.
I feel the keen emphasis on safety was the most highlighting point, talks on anti-collision devices have been going on for a long time now, implementation of this will boost business of few niche manufacturers in the long run, as well as the hint on reducing the operating ratio from 95% to 74% looks promising towards the growth of this industry.
In his budget speech, Trivedi also announced passenger fare hike between 2-30 paise per kilometer across various passenger classes. Fares for suburban travellers were hiked by 2 paise per km.
He said that the rail fare has been hiked to take care of expenditure incurred on security and would generate Rs 4500 crore for Indian Railways.
However, his own Trinamool Congress Party has opposed the fare hike. Main opposition party Bharatiya Janata Party has also expressed unhappiness over the hike.
The benchmark had opened with a gap-up but missed psychological resistance mark of 5500 by a whisker. According to dealers, traders with long positions booked profits near resistance levels ahead of monthly inflation figures and Railways Budget resulting in tapering of intraday gains.
The profit booking intensified after the monthly WPI inflation for the month of February grew 6.95 per cent against 6.55 per cent in January. Inflation and high oil prices may result in Reserve Bank of India maintaining status quo at its review meet Thursday.
"We expect a status quo on CRR and policy rates. We surmise this on the reasoning that: (a) CRR reduction on March 9 should be adequate to address excessively tight liquidity and hence another cut is not warranted; (b) RBI has raised concerns about surging crude prices; and (c) the central bank will be inclined to wait for the Union Budget (scheduled for March 16, post policy) to get a better sense on fiscal policy for the coming year.
Nonetheless, slackening of growth in the economy is real and it has faltered much below potential. Given this, RBI is expected to take cognizance of growth (and investment) slowdown and initiate rate cuts in its annual policy meeting in April.
Meanwhile, Railway Minister, Dinesh Trivedi, presented Railway Budget for FY12-13 in the parliament today. The Minister began speech by stressing on improving safety measures. His ministry is planning to eliminate all unmanned railway crossings in next five years.
The Indian Railways also aims to cut operating ratio to 84.9 percent in 2012-13 from 95 percent.
"Our target is to bring down the operating ratio, which is at the moment 95 per cent, to 84.9 percent in 2012-13 and to 74 per cent in terminal year of 12th five year plan.
I feel the keen emphasis on safety was the most highlighting point, talks on anti-collision devices have been going on for a long time now, implementation of this will boost business of few niche manufacturers in the long run, as well as the hint on reducing the operating ratio from 95% to 74% looks promising towards the growth of this industry.
In his budget speech, Trivedi also announced passenger fare hike between 2-30 paise per kilometer across various passenger classes. Fares for suburban travellers were hiked by 2 paise per km.
He said that the rail fare has been hiked to take care of expenditure incurred on security and would generate Rs 4500 crore for Indian Railways.
However, his own Trinamool Congress Party has opposed the fare hike. Main opposition party Bharatiya Janata Party has also expressed unhappiness over the hike.
With
Railways Budget out of the way, the market will keenly await the Union Budget
to be presented by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Friday. The
minister will have to walk a tight rope balancing reforms and populist
measures.
"Expect major fiscal slippage for FY12 given both revenue slowdown and expenditure overrun; fiscal deficit is likely to be 5.6% of GDP v/s 4.6% budget estimate.
Based on realistic assumptions, expect some fiscal consolidation in FY13 with fiscal deficit at 5% of GDP and net borrowing program at INR5t. There is also headroom for positive surprises (additional excise on diesel vehicles, telecom spectrum auction, etc), which could further lower fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP.
From the policy perspective, expect a relatively routine budget with major initiatives (DTC, GST, FDI in retail, etc) taken off the Budget session.
The Nifty closed at 5466.55, up 37.05 points or 0.68 per cent. The broader index touched a high of 5499.40 and low of 5437.80 in trade today.
The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex ended at 17919.30, up 105.68 points or 0.59 per cent. It touched intraday high of 18040.69 and low of 17837.22.
It might just make sense to book some of the profits and wait on the sidelines with some degree of cash for a possible correction, though not significant, probably a small correction that you could see post the budget based on whatever disappointments that could be there.
The rally has been sharp enough and there is just a good case to sit with some cash.
BSE Midcap Index was up 0.32 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index moved 0.28 per cent lower.
Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Bankex advanced 1.83 per cent, BSE Capital Goods Index gained 1.60 per cent, BSE Power Index moved 1.05 per cent higher and BSE FMCG Index moved up 0.90 per cent. BSE Realty Index was down 0.96 per cent and BSE IT Index slipped 0.67 per cent.
Punjab National Bank (5.62%), BPCL (3.15%), NTPC (2.74%), Axis Bank (2.71%) and Larsen & Toubro (2.70%) were the major Nifty gainers.
TCS (-3.76%), Jaiprakash Associates (-3.17%), Reliance Communications (-1.60%), Tata Steel (-1.41%) andDLF (-1.25%) were the major losers.
"Expect major fiscal slippage for FY12 given both revenue slowdown and expenditure overrun; fiscal deficit is likely to be 5.6% of GDP v/s 4.6% budget estimate.
Based on realistic assumptions, expect some fiscal consolidation in FY13 with fiscal deficit at 5% of GDP and net borrowing program at INR5t. There is also headroom for positive surprises (additional excise on diesel vehicles, telecom spectrum auction, etc), which could further lower fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP.
From the policy perspective, expect a relatively routine budget with major initiatives (DTC, GST, FDI in retail, etc) taken off the Budget session.
The Nifty closed at 5466.55, up 37.05 points or 0.68 per cent. The broader index touched a high of 5499.40 and low of 5437.80 in trade today.
The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex ended at 17919.30, up 105.68 points or 0.59 per cent. It touched intraday high of 18040.69 and low of 17837.22.
It might just make sense to book some of the profits and wait on the sidelines with some degree of cash for a possible correction, though not significant, probably a small correction that you could see post the budget based on whatever disappointments that could be there.
The rally has been sharp enough and there is just a good case to sit with some cash.
BSE Midcap Index was up 0.32 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index moved 0.28 per cent lower.
Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Bankex advanced 1.83 per cent, BSE Capital Goods Index gained 1.60 per cent, BSE Power Index moved 1.05 per cent higher and BSE FMCG Index moved up 0.90 per cent. BSE Realty Index was down 0.96 per cent and BSE IT Index slipped 0.67 per cent.
Punjab National Bank (5.62%), BPCL (3.15%), NTPC (2.74%), Axis Bank (2.71%) and Larsen & Toubro (2.70%) were the major Nifty gainers.
TCS (-3.76%), Jaiprakash Associates (-3.17%), Reliance Communications (-1.60%), Tata Steel (-1.41%) andDLF (-1.25%) were the major losers.
Regards
RAKESH MAKIN
+91,
9041667797(DIRECT), 9915684997
OFF
0172-4657997
PANCHKULA (Haryana).
Email:makin_97@yahoo.com
Group mail id: makin97NSEtips@yahoogroups.co.in
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