SENSEX 15836.47 -44.67
NIFTY 4746.35
-16.90
USD/INR 0053.17 +00.57
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UPDATEDTIME 09.28 PM 15 DECEMBER 2011
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The Bombay
Stock Exchange's Sensex pared of the intraday losses and closed marginally
lower as institutional investors turned buyers at lower levels in frontline
stocks ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's policy meet. Recovery in index
heavy-weight Reliance Industries and positive European markets also provided
support to the indices.
There is a consensus amongst institutions that the RBI may not hike interest rates further. It may also not go ahead with CRR cut as has been the rumours in the market. However, inflation, which continues to be above 9 per cent and depreciating rupee are likely to keep the central bank in tight spot.
"Given the balance between inflation and growth, we expect the RBI to hold the policy interest rate steady over the remaining months of the current fiscal year. We think cuts in the repo rate could begin in mid-2012. We assign only a small probability to an easing in the repo rate before Q2 12, unless there is a major deterioration in global economic and financial market conditions.
Recently, there has been much debate about whether the RBI should cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR). We feel reducing the CRR at this time would be less than optimal. Such a move could be perceived as diluting the RBI's inflation-fighting stance and leave the central bank vulnerable to criticism if there were further upside surprises in inflation in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the rupee bounced back after falling to intraday record low of 54.30 against the US dollar. The partially convertible rupee was at 53.79, down 0.09 paise, against previous close of 53.71/72.
According to experts, the RBI's policy review is not likely to have major impact on the market. Investors need to take a medium term to long term calls.
"Domestically there is nothing going to happen even if RBI starts cutting rates. Let us remember monetary policy effects happen with a lag.
There is a fair chance that there is nothing on the horizon actually in terms of triggers to buy so one has to take a medium term to a slightly longer term call.
This is the fourth consecutive month where market has bounced from closer to 4700 levels to somewhere around 5100-5200 levels. That kind of a thing also cannot be ruled out but there is no trigger to buy
The Sensex ended at 15836.47, down 44.67 points or 0.28 per cent. The 30-share index touched intraday low of 15596.22 and high of 15908.02
The National Stock Exchange's Nifty closed at 4746.35, down 16.90 points or 0.35 per cent. The broader index touched a high of 4768.65 and low of 4673.85 in trade today.
the market may see some upside if the RBI takes a dovish stance. However, it may not last long and the downtrend would resume soon.
What do you expect from tomorrow's policy? Do you expect him to reduce rates? I do not think so. May be some soothing words, they will work for about couple of hours and then market should get back into its original trend which is down.
There is a consensus amongst institutions that the RBI may not hike interest rates further. It may also not go ahead with CRR cut as has been the rumours in the market. However, inflation, which continues to be above 9 per cent and depreciating rupee are likely to keep the central bank in tight spot.
"Given the balance between inflation and growth, we expect the RBI to hold the policy interest rate steady over the remaining months of the current fiscal year. We think cuts in the repo rate could begin in mid-2012. We assign only a small probability to an easing in the repo rate before Q2 12, unless there is a major deterioration in global economic and financial market conditions.
Recently, there has been much debate about whether the RBI should cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR). We feel reducing the CRR at this time would be less than optimal. Such a move could be perceived as diluting the RBI's inflation-fighting stance and leave the central bank vulnerable to criticism if there were further upside surprises in inflation in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the rupee bounced back after falling to intraday record low of 54.30 against the US dollar. The partially convertible rupee was at 53.79, down 0.09 paise, against previous close of 53.71/72.
According to experts, the RBI's policy review is not likely to have major impact on the market. Investors need to take a medium term to long term calls.
"Domestically there is nothing going to happen even if RBI starts cutting rates. Let us remember monetary policy effects happen with a lag.
There is a fair chance that there is nothing on the horizon actually in terms of triggers to buy so one has to take a medium term to a slightly longer term call.
This is the fourth consecutive month where market has bounced from closer to 4700 levels to somewhere around 5100-5200 levels. That kind of a thing also cannot be ruled out but there is no trigger to buy
The Sensex ended at 15836.47, down 44.67 points or 0.28 per cent. The 30-share index touched intraday low of 15596.22 and high of 15908.02
The National Stock Exchange's Nifty closed at 4746.35, down 16.90 points or 0.35 per cent. The broader index touched a high of 4768.65 and low of 4673.85 in trade today.
the market may see some upside if the RBI takes a dovish stance. However, it may not last long and the downtrend would resume soon.
What do you expect from tomorrow's policy? Do you expect him to reduce rates? I do not think so. May be some soothing words, they will work for about couple of hours and then market should get back into its original trend which is down.
You could
have another 20-30 point pullback rally but finally the rupee will restart its
decline and so will the market. As long as the rupee does not break its trend
it will be difficult for the market to have sustained gains for a long
time," Gujral said.
BSE Midcap Index was down 1.11 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index fell 1.52 per cent.
Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Capital Goods Index was down 1.91 per cent, BSE Auto Index was 1.23 per cent lower and BSE Bankex fell 0.98 per cent.
Sterlite Industries (-3.96%), Bharti Airtel (-3.40%), BHEL (-2.48%), Tata Motors (-2.35%) and State Bank of India (-2.25%) were the major Sensex losers.
Tata Power (4.09%), Coal India (3.83%), Hindustan Unilever (2.80%), NTPC (2.02%) and Jaiprakash Associates (1.48%) were amongst the gainers.
Shares of Reliance Industries bounced back to close 1.21 per cent higher on the NSE after the Central Bureau of Investigation dropped 2 out of 3 cases against the company in KG-D6 basin case. There's no loss to government by Reliance Industries' capex increase in the basin, ET NOW quoted CBI sources.
BSE Midcap Index was down 1.11 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index fell 1.52 per cent.
Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Capital Goods Index was down 1.91 per cent, BSE Auto Index was 1.23 per cent lower and BSE Bankex fell 0.98 per cent.
Sterlite Industries (-3.96%), Bharti Airtel (-3.40%), BHEL (-2.48%), Tata Motors (-2.35%) and State Bank of India (-2.25%) were the major Sensex losers.
Tata Power (4.09%), Coal India (3.83%), Hindustan Unilever (2.80%), NTPC (2.02%) and Jaiprakash Associates (1.48%) were amongst the gainers.
Shares of Reliance Industries bounced back to close 1.21 per cent higher on the NSE after the Central Bureau of Investigation dropped 2 out of 3 cases against the company in KG-D6 basin case. There's no loss to government by Reliance Industries' capex increase in the basin, ET NOW quoted CBI sources.
Regards
RAKESH MAKIN
+91,
9041667797(DIRECT), 9915684997
OFF
0172-4657997
PANCHKULA (Haryana).
Email:makin_97@yahoo.com
Group mail id: makin97NSEtips@yahoogroups.co.in
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