MARKET ENDED 30.11.2010 WEDNESDAY
SENSEX 16123.46 +115.12
NIFTY 4832.05
+26.95
NASDAQ 2606.98 +91.47
RS/$ 52.17
+00.13
The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex took in stride in-line
Gross Domestic Product numbers for quarter ended September and ended a volatile
session in the positive terrain even as global peers were down on profit
booking.
India's Q2 FY12 GDP grew at 6.9 per cent as compared to 7.7 per cent a quarter ago. ET Now poll was expecting it to be at 6.8 per cent. The government is confident that despite global economic woes, FY12 GDP growth would come in above 7 per cent.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is expecting the GDP to grow at 7.5 per cent for FY12 and sees fiscal deficit to be around 5 per cent of GDP in FY12.
He added that inflation may come down to 7 per cent by March 2012 but if it continues to remain stubborn then the Reserve Bank of India will hike rates further.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said that global factors were hurting India's economic growth and Q2 GDP figures were below government's and budget forecast. He is expecting FY12 GDP growth at 7.3 per cent.
Following 7.7% growth in Q1 FY12, India's Q2 FY12 GDP came in at 6.9%, broadly in line with expectations. Going forward, due to a combination of both domestic issues (inflation, rates, and policy inaction) and worsening global prospects, we expect GDP growth to slow further and average 6.8% in 2HFY12 v/s 7.3% in 1HFY12. This would result in full-year FY12 growth coming in at 7.1% vs. 8.5% in FY11.
The Sensex ended at 16123.46, up 115.12 points or 0.72 per cent. The 30-share index touched intraday low of 15849.57 and high of 16179.56.
The National Stock Exchange's Nifty ended at 4832.05, up 26.95 points or 0.56 per cent. The broader index touched a high of 4851.55 and low of 4754.80 in trade today.
According to analysts due to the macro-economic headwinds; the market is likely to remain range bound for next 6-9 months.
It looks like that the next quarter numbers are also not going to be great. Given the kind of macro variables, if one really looks at rupee it is still on a treacherous territory. In addition to that, I doubt that I will see any kind of an interest rate cut anytime soon. In terms of the overall policy environment, it does not look like that it will provide any direction to the market going forward.
So in that sense GDP growth rate might hover around 7 per cent going forward. So it does not really help much in terms of market direction. So overall what we are expecting over the next six to nine month is more sort of a range-bound kind of a market which would be about 14 times FY12 and FY13 Sensex EPS. It comes to about 15500 on a lower side and about 18000 on a higher side.
India's Q2 FY12 GDP grew at 6.9 per cent as compared to 7.7 per cent a quarter ago. ET Now poll was expecting it to be at 6.8 per cent. The government is confident that despite global economic woes, FY12 GDP growth would come in above 7 per cent.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is expecting the GDP to grow at 7.5 per cent for FY12 and sees fiscal deficit to be around 5 per cent of GDP in FY12.
He added that inflation may come down to 7 per cent by March 2012 but if it continues to remain stubborn then the Reserve Bank of India will hike rates further.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said that global factors were hurting India's economic growth and Q2 GDP figures were below government's and budget forecast. He is expecting FY12 GDP growth at 7.3 per cent.
Following 7.7% growth in Q1 FY12, India's Q2 FY12 GDP came in at 6.9%, broadly in line with expectations. Going forward, due to a combination of both domestic issues (inflation, rates, and policy inaction) and worsening global prospects, we expect GDP growth to slow further and average 6.8% in 2HFY12 v/s 7.3% in 1HFY12. This would result in full-year FY12 growth coming in at 7.1% vs. 8.5% in FY11.
The Sensex ended at 16123.46, up 115.12 points or 0.72 per cent. The 30-share index touched intraday low of 15849.57 and high of 16179.56.
The National Stock Exchange's Nifty ended at 4832.05, up 26.95 points or 0.56 per cent. The broader index touched a high of 4851.55 and low of 4754.80 in trade today.
According to analysts due to the macro-economic headwinds; the market is likely to remain range bound for next 6-9 months.
It looks like that the next quarter numbers are also not going to be great. Given the kind of macro variables, if one really looks at rupee it is still on a treacherous territory. In addition to that, I doubt that I will see any kind of an interest rate cut anytime soon. In terms of the overall policy environment, it does not look like that it will provide any direction to the market going forward.
So in that sense GDP growth rate might hover around 7 per cent going forward. So it does not really help much in terms of market direction. So overall what we are expecting over the next six to nine month is more sort of a range-bound kind of a market which would be about 14 times FY12 and FY13 Sensex EPS. It comes to about 15500 on a lower side and about 18000 on a higher side.
BSE Midcap
Index was down 0.66 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index declined 0.73 per cent.
Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Oil & gas Index moved 1.63 per cent higher, BSE FMCG Index was up 1.20 per cent and BSE IT Index gained 0.64 per cent. BSE Realty Index fell 0.91 per cent, BSE Auto Index was down 0.69 per cent and BSE Bankex declined 0.61 per cent.
Bharti Airtel (3.17%), ONGC (3.06%), Sun Pharmaceuticals (2.84%), NTPC (2.40%) and Hindustan Unilever (2.26%) were the top Sensex gainers.
ICICI Bank (-3.01%), Sterlite Industries (-2.98%), Tata Motors (-2.76%), Hero MotoCorp (-2.76%) and Jaiprakash Associates (-1.66%) were amongst the major Sensex losers.
Bharti Airtel gained momentum for being added to the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Index while ICICI Bank slipped lower as its weightage was reduced to 3 per cent from 5 per cent.
Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Oil & gas Index moved 1.63 per cent higher, BSE FMCG Index was up 1.20 per cent and BSE IT Index gained 0.64 per cent. BSE Realty Index fell 0.91 per cent, BSE Auto Index was down 0.69 per cent and BSE Bankex declined 0.61 per cent.
Bharti Airtel (3.17%), ONGC (3.06%), Sun Pharmaceuticals (2.84%), NTPC (2.40%) and Hindustan Unilever (2.26%) were the top Sensex gainers.
ICICI Bank (-3.01%), Sterlite Industries (-2.98%), Tata Motors (-2.76%), Hero MotoCorp (-2.76%) and Jaiprakash Associates (-1.66%) were amongst the major Sensex losers.
Bharti Airtel gained momentum for being added to the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Index while ICICI Bank slipped lower as its weightage was reduced to 3 per cent from 5 per cent.
Regards,
RAKESH MAKIN
Chugh securities Pvt Ltd
+91 ,9041667797(DIRECT),9915684997
OFF 0172-4657997
PANCHKULA (Haryana).
Email:makin_97@yahoo.com
Group mail
id: makin97NSEtips@yahoogroups.co.in
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