MARKET VIEW 04.11.2009

Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex ended at 15,912.13, up 507.19 points or 3.29 per cent. The broader index hit a high of 15929.09 and low of 15487.97 intraday. National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 4710.80, up 146.90 points or 3.22 per cent. The index touched a high of 4717.80 and low of 4565 during trade. MUMBAI Indices ended their six-day losing streak by closing with huge gains on Wednesday. The rally was mostly on account of short-covering in sectors and stocks that were beaten down badly in the previous session. Positive sentiments across Europe also helped indices to gain momentum. Dealers were anticipating a pullback as the market looked in an oversold zone. However, this upmove is just seen as an opportunity to exit on rise before any deeper correction sets in. “It was a classic short covering day after a sharp fall. Anticipation of some positive comments from the US Fed meet and reports of RBI’s gold purchase deal bolstered trader sentiments after days of bear grip. However, we don’t expect the euphoric mood post Fed comments to last long and Nifty may eventually drift to 4350 The BSE Midcap Index was up 3.54 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index moved 2.18 per cent higher. Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Realty Index surged 9.65 per cent, BSE Metal Index rallied 5.36 per cent and BSE IT Index moved 3.99 per cent higher. Jai Prakash Associates (9.42%), Hindalco Industries (9.16%), DLF (8.48%), Sterlite Industries (6.63%) and Reliance Industries (5.49%) were amongst the Sensex gainers. Sun Pharmaceuticals (-0.78%), Grasim Industries (-0.39%) and Tata Power (-0.19%) were amongst the losers. Market breadth was positive on the BSE with 1,774 advances and 946 declines. European markets were in the green on expectations the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low. US markets are also expected to open higher. At 5:20 pm IST, Dow Jones stock futures was up 0.64 per cent, S&P 500 gained 0.63 per cent and Nasdaq 100 moved 0.36 per cent higher.

MARKET VIEW 03.11.2009

BLOOD BATH DAY
Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex ended at 15,404.94, down 491.34 points or 3.09 per cent. The index hit intra-day low of 15,330.56 and high of 15,957.06. National Stock Exchange’s Nifty closed at 4,563.90, down 147.80 points or 3.14 per cent. The 50-share index fell to a low of 4,538.50 and high of 4,729.85 in today’s trade It was a blood bath on the Dalal Street Tuesday as indices ended with huge losses after an extended weekend. Benchmarks breached crucial supports before settling near the day’s lows. The worst hit in the correction were stocks from realty and metals space. Market opened lower taking cues from subdued Asian markets and lack of positive triggers back home. Analysts were expecting the Indian market to correct in order to match-up with global markets which witnessed a sell-off in the previous session. (Indian markets were shut Monday on account of Guru Nanak Jayanti). The trigger, however, came in the form of poor opening of the European markets. Traders pressed the panic button on fears that global economic recovery would come to a halt if stimulus packages are withdrawn. Some disappointing quarterly earnings also led to the sharp fall in share prices. “This fall could be just a beginning of deeper correction. Such a sharp crack below 4700 will force investors with cash to remain away. This would result in lack of support to the indices. Some minor bounce back would be seen but that should be used to exit positions. We expect the Nifty to take support at 4400 and if it fails to hold then 4100 is there on the horizon. Market will eventually find support there as stocks will look attractive at these levels. “The downtrend is very much in place and Nifty may see a trading bounce around 4450-4400. It is difficult at this time to ascertain the bottom and Nifty may slip to 4100-4200 levels. Traders should adopt sell at every rise opportunity. Realty, construction and capital goods stocks are weak and may fall further,” said Anil Manghnani, director, Modern Shares and Stock Brokers. The BSE Midcap Index was down 3.74 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index slipped 4.50 per cent. Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Realty Index plunged 9.76 per cent, BSE Metal Index fell 5.95 per cent and BSE Oil&gas Index was down 4.10 per cent. Hindalco Industries (-10.50%), DLF (-9.04%), Jaiprakash Associates (-7.52%), Sterlite Industries (-6.40%) and ACC (-6.20%) were amongst the top Sensex losers. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries fell a massive 5.73 per cent on the BSE. “Reliance Industries is trading below its long term 100 & 200 day moving average of Rs 1978-2042 which is negative for the stock. Going forward, if the stock breaks below Rs 1910 and trades consistently then it might even fall upto Rs 1880-1835 or maximum to Rs 1730. The stock will show strength only if trades above Rs 1980.
Bharti Airtel (2.67%), Maruti Suzuki (1.13%) and Sun Pharmaceuticals (0.31%) were the only Sensex gainers. Reliance Communications reported 51.66 per cent decline in its consolidated profit at Rs 740 crore for the second quarter due to provisions for foreign exchange fluctuation or derivative losses. The company had consolidated net profit of Rs 1,531 crore in the same quarter last fiscal. The stock tumbled 6.45 per cent on the NSE. Hindalco Industries reported a 52% drop in standalone net profit for the quarter ended September, due to a sharp drop in metal prices on the London Metal Exchange. The Aditya Birla group flagship company said its net profit in the July-September period fell to Rs 344 crore from Rs 720 crore last year, while sales in the same period was down 13.4% to Rs 4,917 crore. The stock plunged 10.45 per cent. Suzlon Energy posted Rs 356-crore loss in the quarter ended September 30, 2009 compared to a Rs 22.84-crore loss posted in the same period last year, owing to lower volumes. Its total consolidated revenues, during the period, declined to Rs 4,793-crore as compared to Rs 6,921-crore a year-ago. The stock tanked 13.39 per cent on the NSE. Market breadth was negative on the BSE with 2171 declines against 534 advances. All eyes are set on the US Federal Reserve that is holding two-day meet beginning Tuesday. At 5:40 pm IST, Dow Jones stock futures was down 0.97 per cent, S&P 500 fell 1.09 per cent and Nasdaq 100 declined 0.91 per cent.

MONDAY HOLIDAY

Monday market holiday on account of Gurunanak Jayanthi
Best Wishes to all in advance on account of Gurunanak Jayanthi
COMODITY MARKET WILL BE OPEN AT 05.00 PM ON MONDAY AS OCCASSION OF GURUNANAK JAYANTHI.

MARKET VIEW THIS WEEK ended 30.10.2009

SENSEX :15896.28 -156.44

NIFTY : 4711.70 -38.85

NASDAQ : 2045.11 -52.44

RS/$ : 46.96 0.24

WEEKLY CLOSING

SENSEX :15896 -915 (-5.75%)

NIFTY: 4625 -285 (-6.06%)

The 30-share Sensex ended the day at 11,876.43, down 240.51 points, or 2%, over the previous close. The 50-share Nifty closed at 3620.70, down 63.20 points or 1.7% over the previous close. “A correction was inevitable considering the run-up in the past couple of months,” said Ajay Parmar, head of research, Emkay Share & Stock Brokers. “But the heartening aspect is that institutional investors have been steady buyers,” he said. However, foreign institutional participation on Friday was muted compared with the past few weeks. Overseas funds net-bought Rs 100 crore worth of shares, according to provisional data. Domestic institutions maintained their cautious approach, net-selling Rs 90 crore worth of shares. Banking, metal and IT shares were the worst performers, with the respective sectoral indices on BSE shedding 2-3%. Banking and metal shares have been very volatile over the past few months, as investors are worried about rising bad loans in banks’ books and weak metal prices. This has often led to steep falls in these shares, and equally dramatic recoveries when investors felt the panic may have been overdone. Wipro, Sterlite Industries, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel and Reliance Infrastructure were among the prominent losers of the day, shedding between 4-6%. Shares of automobile, capital goods and fast-moving consumer goods firms were among the best performers on a relative basis, though most of these stocks were under pressure, too. “We strongly believe that the Indian story on fundamentals in 2008 got derailed because highly-geared and negative cash flow business groups could no longer raise money in the capital market. If this fact is changed over the coming months, and Indian companies succeed in raising $10-15 billion over the next few months, even if the market was to reverse later in the year on global factors or on domestic policy tightening, corporate fundamentals could be on the way for the market to be substantially higher in 2010,” a Credit Suisse report earlier this week said.

मार्केट वीएव ३१.१०.2009

Sensex fell 7.2% in October & logged the biggest monthly fall in a year, after it closed 1% lower on FridayBombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex was trading at 16350, higher by 298 points or 1.8 per cent while National Stock Exchange’s Nifty surged 96 points or 2 per cent to 4847. “International markets are shooting up and our market will also open with a gap up in the morning, and rise further on back of short covering. We expect markets to face significant resistances on its way up as it reaches where it was this Monday. Consider 4950 in nifty and 16700 as a ceiling for now. Monday being a holiday in our markets, we will encounter another gap opening on Tuesday depending on international cues. US stocks logged their best one-day percentage gain in three months on Thursday as investors cheered US economic data which showed the economy returned to growth in the third quarter as brightening the outlook for profits. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 199.89 points, or 2.05 per cent, to end at 9,962.58. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index jumped 23.48 points, or 2.25 per cent, to 1,066.11 - marking its biggest one-day percentage gain in three months. The Nasdaq Composite Index shot up 37.94 points, or 1.84 percent, to close at 2,097.55. Asian markets were also on a roll tracking advances on Wall Street and as Japan’s jobless rate unexpectedly dropped. The Nikkei climbed 1.26 per cent, Topix rose 1.07 per cent, Hang Seng surged 3.13 per cent and Straits Times rallied 1.53 per cent