MARKET VIEW 12.10.2009

Market started the week on a buoyant note as the benchmark indices surged nearly 2.5% in today’s trade. Sensex gained 384 points to close at 17026, while Nifty finished at 5054, up 109 points. BSE Mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Index of Industrial Production number for the month of August came in better than expected at 10.4% as against 7.2% for the previous month. Reliance Communication closed lower by 0.6% after the reports that a government appointed auditor has found inflation of revenues by Rs. 2915 cr. by the company in 2007-08, besides evasion of Rs. 315 cr. in license fee. European markets were up by more than a percent led by banking stocks. US stock indices futures were higher by half a percent. All the BSE sectoral indices finished in green. Consumer Durable index was the top gainer, up 3.7%, followed by IT index, which gained 2.9%. SBI and Reliance Infra were the top gainers among the Sensex stocks, putting on 5.2% and 5% respectively. Hero Honda and Rel Com were the top losers, shedding 0.9% and 0.6% respectively

market overview this week

Big bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala feels the Indian stock markets, currently on an
upward rally, may "burst" in a month or two"If your see the formation of the
indexes, all the stocks are going up, indexes are going up. (There are) minor
corrections at every point. You cannot have this kind of a rise...(a) peak
without burst. I think the burst will come within one or two months," Rare
Enterprises, Partner, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said at the Private Equity
International India Forum 2009, here today.Indian capital markets have been
heading northward led by robust liquidity positions and on the belief that
economic recovery has begun.However, Jhunjhunwala said that "I have a right
to be wrong and I may change my opinion very fast."He said that the future of Indian markets
depended on the performance of the Indian economy and the international scenario."I think
economic growth in India is going to be between 12-14 per cent over the next 5-7 years. I think
the factors that are guiding this growth are irreversible, whether it is skills, tolerance,
democracy, demographics," Jhunjhunwala said."And if growth in corporate profits is going to be
a percentage of nominal GDP growth which it is worldwide, I don't see any reason why
corporate profits should not grow between 15-17 per cent compounded," he added.
However, there is still some pain left for the western economies which have not yet witnessed
the peak of the economic slowdown."As far as the economic slowdown goes, I think we have
not (yet) seen the peak. I think the next 2-3 years for the western world are going to be far
slower than for the rest," Jhunjhunwala said. According to him, even though India places
significant importance on foreign fund inflows, the amount of local money invested in the
markets in the last five-years has been far greater than foreign money.
The Dalal Street guru said he has decided not to invest in start-up companies "because you have
to nurture them and bringing them to size is a bit of a painful process"."This year, I think Rs
2,500-3,000-crore local money will come and in two years maybe Rs 6,000 crore. I am bullish.
The flow of money is going to go through the roof," he said.The market pro said he does not
expect India to hike interest rates before March next year

MARKET VIEW 08.10.2009

Thursday turned out to be an absolute choppy day which ended on a flat
note. The index heavyweight Reliance industries which announced a 1:1
bonus issue on Wednesday surged in the early trades however as the day
progressed the stock ended almost flat. The move which was meant to
boost up investor confidence failed to inspire the bulls. IT stocks were
under the pressure as the Indian Rupee gained 12% since March. On the
other hand the telecom stocks continue to remain under the bear attack
on account of per second payment. Technically, it is the second straight
trading session where the NSE Nifty ended below the 13DMA. However, a positive sign is that the index has managed to close above the 5,000 levels. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 37 points at 16,843 after touching a high of 16,998 and a low of 16,775. The index opened at 16,908
against the previous close of 16,806. The NSE Nifty was up 16 points to shut shop at 5,002.
Telecom stocks again took it on the chin and IT stocks had a bad outing on the back of a strong rupee. Bharti and Reliance Communications lost between 6-7%, while TCS and Infosys shed 3- 4% each on the NSE. Infosys weakened almost 2% ahead of its results tomorrow. However, stocks such as Siemens, Tata Motors and Reliance Infrastructure did well, gaining between 4-5% on the NSE. The market breadth was negative - out of 2,868 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,512 declined, 1,246 advanced.
The wholesale price-based inflation was at 0.83 per cent in the previous week compared to 12.08 per cent during the corresponding week a year ago. Food prices are likely to go up in the coming weeks as floods in the southern states of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have destroyed crops,

MARKET OUTLOOK 05.09.2009

Today Telecom stocks led a setback on the bourses as trading resumedafter a long weekend. The market fell as investors priced in asharp weakness in global markets on Friday, 2 October 2009, whenthe Indian market was closed for a public holiday. The BSE 30-shareSensex lost 268.14 points or 1.56%, off 195.60 points from theday's high and up 30.61 from the day's low. The BSE Sensex dippedbelow the psychological 17,000 level. The 50-unit S&P CNX fellbelow the psychological 5,000 mark in late trade only to regainthat level.After opening with a downward gap, the market extended losses atthe onset of the trading session. Buying in some defensive stockshelped the market soon cut initial losses. The market weakenedagain in mid-morning trade. The market moved in a narrow rangelater. A sell-off in Bharti Airtel pulled the market lower inafternoon trade. Fresh selling in index pivotals pulled the marketto a fresh intraday low in mid-afternoon trade. The market extendedlosses in late trade.The market breadth was weak. Telecom shares were the chiefcasualties of the day following reports of a likely delay in thethird generation auction process. Bharti Airtel tumbled over 8% andReliance Communications lost over 5%. Index heavyweights RelianceIndustries and State Bank of India were down 1.74% and 3.66%respectively. Barring select FMCG and pharma stocks, which gainedon defensive buying, selling was conspicuous across sectors

market ended 01.10.2009

Markets witness profit taking at higher levels Weak US manufacturing data impacted the markets across the globe and the Sensex and Nifty closed flat. The Sensex closed at 17,135 up 8 points or 0.05% and Nifty ended marginally down 0.6 points or 0.01% at 5,083. The broad market indices ended down with the BSE Midcap losing 0.35% and the BSE Smallcap fell 0.04%. The market breadth was negative with the A/D ratio at 0.67:1 on the BSE. Turnover on the NSE was Rs.20,112 cr versus Rs.20,179 cr yesterday. IT, Bankex, FMCG and Metals indices were the major sectoral gainers, rising by 0.9%, 0.8%, 0.7% and 0.2% respectively. Selling pressure was witnessed in Healthcare, Auto, Consumer Durables and Oil & Gas indices. The BSE-30 stocks traded mixed. The top gainers from the BSE-30 were Bharti Airtel, RCom, ICICI Bank and TCS. The top losers were Maruti, HDFC, Grasim and Tata Power. While Bharti
and ICICI Bank were the main contributors to the Sensex gain, these were offset by losses in Reliance and HDFC. Inspite of the market starting the day on a positive note, these initial gains were wiped off due to nervous selling by foreign funds based on global developments. We expect the markets to witness positive momentum early next week barring large negative global or local developments over the 3 day weekend.